The Tariff Scramble: Winning Strategies for the 90-Day US-China Trade Ceasefire

 Discover how forward-thinking logistics leaders are turning tariff volatility into competitive advantage during the 90-day US-China trade ceasefire.

Your logistics plan is now outdated. Again. 

Just when supply chain teams had recalibrated their networks for the current US administration’s sweeping tariffs, the ground has shifted dramatically beneath their feet. The 90-day tariff reduction agreement between the US and China doesn't just change rates—it has unleashed a frenzied race against time with billion-dollar stakes. 

Global logistics teams are now scrambling to maximize a fleeting window of opportunity, with the clock already ticking toward a potential August snapback. Retail industry leaders express growing frustration as the continued uncertainty makes proper business planning nearly impossible. But for organizations equipped with the right technology and approach, this volatility represents not just a challenge, but a chance to secure a decisive competitive advantage.

Tariff whiplash: Understanding the new US-China trade landscape 

The whiplash began on May 13th when President Trump announced a "total reset" in trade terms with China. After weeks of living with punishing 145% duties on Chinese imports, tariffs plummeted overnight to 30%. China reciprocated by slashing its retaliatory tariffs from 125% to just 10% and rolling back non-tariff barriers, including restrictions on rare earth exports. 

But make no mistake—this rollback isn't peace in our time. The administration has characterized this as a suspension rather than cancellation, warning that rates could climb again when the 90-day window closes if further progress isn't made. The baseline 10% tariff on all imports instituted on April 2 remains in place. 

The market response was immediate and intense. Logistics executives report thousands of containers pre-loaded in China waiting to race toward American ports. This strategic "frontloading" has become the dominant approach as companies compress 6-9 months of planned imports into the brief 90-day window before potential tariff snapbacks. Industry analysts project a 4–6-week surge in shipping volume rivaling pandemic-era peaks. Ocean freight rates, which had plummeted 56% on the China-US West Coast route since January, are expected to spike by up to 20% as demand overwhelms carrier capacity that had been strategically reduced during the high-tariff period.

Economic forecasters predict the US trade deficit with China will widen substantially as businesses frantically restock inventories to capitalize on lower rates. Despite this temporary surge, trade analysts still expect Chinese exports to the US to fall by up to one-third compared to previous years, marking a dramatic decline in trade between the world's two largest economies even with the reduced tariffs. Meanwhile, Port of LA officials note the stark impact of the tariff turbulence, with May imports projected to end 25% below last year's levels despite the recent surge. 

The five critical chokepoints threatening your freight operations

As logistics teams rush to capitalize on the 90-day window, five critical chokepoints threaten to derail even the best-laid plans. Each presents unique challenges requiring immediate attention and strategic mitigation. 

Capacity crunch gone extreme 

The sudden demand surge has collided with deliberately reduced shipping capacity with devastating effect. Data shows offered vessel capacity on transpacific routes has decreased significantly since April, with blank (cancelled) sailings increasing dramatically in the same period. This creates a triple hurdle of volume increases, space constraints, and price volatility as carriers struggle to reposition vessels. Carriers that redeployed ships to other trade lanes cannot instantly restore capacity, creating a seller's market for container space. 

Cost multiplication beyond tariffs 

The tariff reduction from 145% to 30% creates significant relief on paper, but the reality is more complex for freight operations. Freight rates spiking up to 20% erode those savings; while cascading surcharges for expedited handling, priority loading, detention, and demurrage add further costs. Some companies report incurring five-figure storage costs in bonded warehouses for single containers—expenses that directly impact freight margins while tying up critical equipment assets. These accumulated freight storage charges cannot be recovered despite the tariff reduction, permanently eroding transportation budgets and forcing operational teams to continuously revise routing plans. 

Documentation and compliance complexity 

The customs processing infrastructure in the current scenario will face unprecedented strain. Documentation requirements haven't simplified with reduced tariffs—if anything, they've grown more complex as freight teams navigate multiple tariff regimes concurrently. With goods potentially crossing borders multiple times, each subject to different documentation requirements, freight teams struggle to accurately complete country-of-origin certifications and duty calculation worksheets. A single documentation error can strand shipments at ports for days, threatening production continuity for an industry built on just-in-time precision. 

Transit time unpredictability

The rush to move freight during the 90-day window can create unprecedented variability in transit times. Port congestion, customs backups, and limited trucking capacity combine to make traditional delivery windows virtually meaningless. Increasing lead time variability will create significant challenges for logistics teams operating with strict service level requirements. This reliability breakdown turns routing decisions into complex risk calculations rather than straightforward efficiency optimizations. 

Freight network imbalances 

The concentrated rush of imports from China will create severe network imbalances across transportation modes. Containers, chassis, and equipment pile up at destination points while becoming scarce at origins. Trucking capacity can become strained in port regions while sitting idle elsewhere. There are significant challenges in securing consistent equipment for stock replenishment, as containers remain trapped in congested import cycles. Distribution centers designed for cross-docking now function as temporary storage, disrupting carefully calibrated retail freight networks.

The new planning paradigm for tariff volatility

The conventional “tried and tested” approach to logistics planning—with quarterly bid cycles, annual carrier reviews, and static routing guides—has become dangerously obsolete in this new environment of tariff volatility. Organizations clinging to these methods are perpetually behind the curve, reconfiguring yesterday's disruption while the next one already looms on the horizon. 

In this environment, real-time data processing isn't just a competitive advantage—it's a prerequisite for operational viability. Organizations need systems that can: 

• Process any data format: From structured database information to unstructured sources like regulatory announcements, carrier updates, and customs notifications

• Break down system silos: Connecting isolated ERP, TMS, OMS, procurement, and visibility solutions without complex integration projects

• Learn and adapt continuously: Refining understanding as tariff policies evolve without waiting for manual updates

• Provide contextual intelligence: Synthesizing insights across sourcing, transportation, customs, and financial information

• Accelerate decision velocity: Compressing decision cycles from days to minutes when tariff changes trigger network reconfiguration

This is precisely where AI agents demonstrate their transformative value. Unlike conventional software requiring explicit programming for each scenario, AI agents create an intelligent orchestration layer spanning traditional system boundaries. When tariff policies shift, they can evaluate alternatives and implement changes before competitors even recognize the need to act. 

Perhaps most importantly, AI agents transform logistics operations from reactive to anticipatory. By continuously monitoring regulatory changes, market conditions, and operational patterns, they identify potential disruptions before they materialize. This capability is essential when existing systems cannot adapt to almost daily changes in tariff policy.

Navigating the future: Beyond the 90-day window

While capitalizing on the immediate 90-day opportunity, forward-thinking logistics leaders are already preparing for what follows. When the day of reckoning arrives, the industry faces three possible scenarios: extended current rates, permanent reductions, or a complete tariff snapback. 

The only certainty is continued uncertainty. Preparing for this future requires adaptive freight systems capable of pivoting rapidly as conditions change: 

• Building flexible transportation networks with multi-modal options 

• Developing contingency routing plans for various tariff scenarios 

• Implementing technology that enables real-time reconfiguration of freight operations 

Organizations that build these capabilities now will transform tariff volatility from threat to competitive advantage. While competitors remain trapped in reactive cycles, leaders with adaptive freight intelligence will capitalize on opportunities others miss. 

Is your organization ready for August 12th? Get your complimentary copy of our eBook "Trade Wars & Tariff Shield: How AI Agents Can Help During a Protectionist Era" to discover how visionaries can turn trade uncertainty into a decisive advantage.